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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

However the latest competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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