Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
