Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
