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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd